Survivorship bias is a flaw in decision making where we reach conclusions without taking into account the whole data. We tend to ignore failures and overestimate the chance of success. It can result in a distorted world view, if we don’t consider the bias.

There is a famous anectode related to survivorship bias. During World War II, the statistician Abraham Wald was asked to decide the location of armour on the war plane. The armour was heavy and can’t be put on the whole plane. He started by looking at the location where the bullets had most hit the returned plane. But soon he realised the data was incomplete. He was only looking at the survivors. The data from the plane that couldn’t return was missing. After considering everything, he decided to put armour where the plane were least hit. Because these are the location where if a plane is hit will result in a crash.

There are various places where survivorship bias is applicable. The mutual fund industry close the least performing funds and reports only the remaining ones. We complain about the degrading quality of music, movies or art in general. We compare today’s art to the art of “olden times” forgetting they are the best of that generation. Comparing them to average art of today will only result in disappointment.

The success story or an outlier?

We all are fascinated by the journey of a person who became successful by beating all odds. But we don’t consider the success rate of the odds. We forget that all college dropouts will not be Bill Gates or Mark Juckerberg. And not all actors with the background of Nawazuddin Siddiqui will be as successful as him. The only true similarity is luck.

All of them worked incredibly hard to be in the position. But they were in the right time and at right place to grab the opportunity. When we see a success we should also keep in mind the failure rate. 95% of all the startups fail. Most of the aspiring actors find it difficult to earn a living.

The decision that worked for them may not be right for you. The risk they took may be fatal for others. The reality is success is complicated. Hard work is not enough and neither are all the advises from a successful person.

We shouldn’t be discouraged after knowing this fact. As Louis Pasteur said,

Luck favours the prepared mind.

No one knows when the opportunity strikes the door. But understanding survivorship bias can help you take a risk after knowing the reality. It help you in not having the inflated view of success and in seeing the full picture before making a decision.